If you choose first, there is obviously a 1/3 chance that you will pick a car. If you pick second, you must add (1. the probability that you pick a car given that your friend picks a goat) and (2. the probability that you pick a car given that your friend picks a car). So P(Car|Friend->Goat) + P(Car|Friend->Car)

Alumni Liaison

Ph.D. on Applied Mathematics in Aug 2007. Involved on applications of image super-resolution to electron microscopy

Francisco Blanco-Silva